Week 7 AAF Playoff Probabilities
Using 538’s Elo ratings methodology (found here), I’ve put together the current Elo ratings for the AAF. The only change I’ve made to 538’s formula is that currently I do not include a home-field advantage modifier since I don’t feel like there is enough data to calculate one yet.
I simulated the season 10,000 times to predict each teams’ estimated wins, losses, and postseason results. Regarding postseason probabilities, I’m using the following tie-breakers: overall winning percentage, then division winning percentage, then head-to-head, then strength of victory, then a coin flip.
Ratings and percentages are rounded.
Elo Ratings
| Elo Rating | Change | Team | Record | eWin | eLoss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1585 | -26 | Orlando Apollos | 5 - 1 | 7.64 | 2.36 |
| 1542 | +14 | Birmingham Iron | 4 - 2 | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| 1527 | +30 | San Antonio Commanders | 4 - 2 | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| 1510 | -14 | San Diego Fleet | 3 - 3 | 4.95 | 5.05 |
| 1501 | +26 | Arizona Hotshots | 3 - 3 | 4.85 | 5.15 |
| 1487 | +25 | Salt Lake Stallions | 2 - 4 | 3.93 | 6.07 |
| 1424 | -25 | Memphis Express | 1 - 5 | 2.46 | 7.54 |
| 1424 | -30 | Atlanta Legends | 2 - 4 | 3.51 | 6.49 |
With four weeks remaining, the playoff picture is starting to become clear. The East is virtually locked up with Orlando and Birmingham all but guaranteed to make it to the post-season.
In the West, it’s a three-team race for two spots with San Antonio controlling their destiny and the Hotshots and Fleet still in mix. Salt Lake is still holding onto hope, but they’ll need many breaks to go their way in the last month of the regular season.
Eastern Conference - Playoff Probabilities
| Team | Playoffs | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Apollos | >99% | 58% | 35% |
| Birmingham Iron | 92% | 39% | 21% |
| Atlanta Legends | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| Memphis Express | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Western Conference - Playoff Probabilities
| Team | Playoffs | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Commanders | 86% | 44% | 19% |
| San Diego Fleet | 59% | 29% | 12% |
| Arizona Hotshots | 41% | 20% | 9% |
| Salt Lake Stallions | 14% | 7% | 3% |
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