Week 9 AAF Playoff Probabilities
Using 538’s Elo ratings methodology (found here), I’ve put together the current Elo ratings for the AAF. The only change I’ve made to 538’s formula is that currently I do not include a home-field advantage modifier since I don’t feel like there is enough data to calculate one yet.
I simulated the season 10,000 times to predict each teams’ estimated wins, losses, and postseason results. Regarding postseason probabilities, I’m using the following tie-breakers: overall winning percentage, then division winning percentage, then head-to-head, then strength of victory, then a coin flip.
Ratings and percentages are rounded.
|1611||+8||Orlando Apollos||7 - 1||8.32||1.68|
|1561||+30||Arizona Hotshots||5 - 3||6.21||3.79|
|1529||+15||Birmingham Iron||5 - 3||5.83||4.17|
|1511||-30||San Antonio Commanders||5 - 3||6.12||3.88|
|1491||+18||Salt Lake Stallions||3 - 5||4.12||5.88|
|1462||-18||San Diego Fleet||3 - 5||3.64||6.36|
|1444||-8||Memphis Express||2 - 6||2.98||7.02|
|1391||-15||Atlanta Legends||2 - 6||2.78||7.22|
Orlando survived a close – and sloppy – game against Memphis, but even in defeat the Express still maintained a slim possibility for the postseason. However, those dreams were dashed for both Memphis and Atlanta as Birmingham locked up their playoff ticket after beating the Legends.
Arizona won another huge game this week, this time defeating San Antonio. The win puts them in the driver’s seat of the West. Even with the loss, San Antonio is still in good shape to advance and it looks like these two teams will play the rubber match of their series in three weeks.
Eastern Conference - Playoff Probabilities
|Orlando Apollos ✓||100%||62%||38%|
|Birmingham Iron ✓||100%||38%||18%|
Western Conference - Playoff Probabilities
|San Antonio Commanders||93%||40%||16%|
|Salt Lake Stallions||9%||4%||2%|
|San Diego Fleet||3%||1%||<1%|
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