AAF Trendspotting - Five Weeks In

JR Reynolds (@JR_Reynolds17)

The weekly AAF Trendspotting series takes a look at AAF league-wide trends and the impact on fantasy sports. While much of the game is the same as the NFL, the scaled down league size, developmental roster pools, and coaching tactics can have a huge effect.

On the Offensive

Up until last week, it looked like the AAF only had a handful of teams capable of putting up consistent numbers on the scoreboard. “Unders” had been a profitable betting trend as no one truly had a gauge on what each team was capable of, including the teams themselves!

Over the course of the first three weeks, game totals hovered right around the forty point mark, before seeing a dramatic drop off in scoring in week 4. Trying to find players and teams with scoring potential and working offenses seemed to be getting harder and harder. That was until last week’s league wide offensive outburst. Seven out of the 8 AAF teams put up 20 or more points in their week 5 contests.

Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come as we enter the second half of the AAF season. This sudden surge in scoring could mean that almost all of the teams have found their footing on offense. This in turn would also lead to an increase in DFS options when filling out our rosters.

D'Ernest Does It All

Following his week 3 breakout, D’Ernest Johnson looked poised to tighten his grip on the Apollos’ backfield. However, in week 4 Akeem Hunt and De’Veon Smith were effective, making it look like Johnson’s ascension was premature. Low and behold, Johnson’s week 5 workload looked much similar to the one he saw in week 3. He was one carry short of double digits, totaling 49 yards, and was also heavily utilized in the receiving game catching 5 balls for 73 yards.

It also seems like Fanball was not aggressive enough in their pricing adjustment for Johnson’s workload. If you believe he can keep up the good work in week 6, Johnson looks like a value as it stands today.

Folston Featured

Speaking of running backs that have carved out their roles, Tarean Folston has been awesome in Atlanta’s past two games. He was mainly used in the passing game in the Legends’ upset victory against the Hotshots, but in week 4 he was given a full complement of work. It is safe to say Folston took full advantage. The most encouraging part of Folston’s game is his three down capability. He has 5 or more target in each of the past two games and scored touchdowns on the ground and through the air in week 4.

Folston looks to be an integral part of the Legends offense leaving guys like Lawrence Pittman and Denard Robinson in the dust.

Right Direction

In the spirit of trying to predict future success, here are the receivers who saw there target counts increase from week 4 to week 5.

Player Week 6 Price Week 4 Targets Week 4 FPTs Week 5 Targets Week 5 FPTs
D. Pierson-El $6,000 2 4.4 9 23
N. Spruce $5,600 5 3.2 8 8.7
Q. Patton $5,300 6 3.7 11 8.6
S. Jones $5,200 2 0 6 13.9
B. Brown $4,800 3 0 8 8.8
M. Bundy $4,400 3 5 6 7.9
T. Palmer $4,200 2 0 5 8.6
B. Tyms $4,100 5 7.2 9 6
F. Martino $3,900 3 2.1 7 7.4
B. Howard $3,600 1 4.7 5 8.9

Big list this week. De’Mornay Pierson El came back with a vengeance in week 5 after his lackluster week 4. Pierson El looked like the potential number one wideout for Salt Lake in week 3, but was unable to carry that success into week 4. Now it looks like he might be able to play the part. His teammate Brian Tyms continues to see his target counts rise. His price is only $4,100 in week 5 after a 9 target outing.

Quinton Patton continued to underperform his massive target share in the Iron receiving corps. It has now been 4 straight weeks since he has put up double digit fantasy points.

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