AAF Fantasy Projections and Rankings - Week 05

Anders Eagleson (@AndersEagleson)

Access the full player projections here: Week 05 AAF Fantasy Projections

Typically in data science, a growing sample size reveals trends and makes the information more clear. You would think that after four weeks of AAF play, we would know who the good teams are. Instead, Week 4 flipped the whole league on its head, with winless Memphis and Atlanta defeating 2-1 San Diego and 2-1 Arizona. Surely 3-0 Birmingham is safe? Of course they lost to 1-2 San Antonio. Every team in this league can play, reminiscent of the classic mantra: “Any given Sunday”. Even Sundays in March, apparently.

This only makes the fantasy landscape more interesting. Without obvious cupcake matchups or powerhouse teams, players must be separated by the finer details of their usage and performance thus far. This enigmatic AAF midseason stretch should see waiver hawks and studious managers rise to the top of their leagues, because there are no more safe bets in AAF fantasy football (Not even Trent!)

Quarterbacks

  1. Garrett Gilbert – Orlando Apollos
  2. John Wolford – Arizona Hotshots

These two QBs are far and away the best fantasy QBs in the AAF, though the field is breathing down their necks as Gilbert and Wolford fight to stay atop the rankings. Orlando and Arizona are the two biggest favorites this week, so they remain safe in Tier 1 for at least one more week.

  1. Zach Mettenberger – Memphis Express
  2. Aaron Murray – Atlanta Legends
  3. Josh Woodrum – Salt Lake Stallions

The second QB tier is pushing to join the top. Mettenberger and Murray were the top two fantasy QBs in Week 4, and face off against one another in Week 5. Woodrum appears to pass the eye test as a strong quarterback, but has yet to have a breakout fantasy performance.

  1. Logan Woodside – San Antonio Commanders
  2. Luis Perez – Birmingham Iron
  3. Mike Bercovici – San Diego Fleet

Woodside and Perez continue to disappoint fantasy managers, showing flashes but fizzling out each week. Bercovici is back in action for the Fleet, but who knows how effective he can be returning from injury.

Running Backs

  1. Trent Richardson – Birmingham Iron

Much like Gilbert and Wolford, Trent’s reign as the top RB may be coming to a close. In Week 4, Richardson was subbed out often for Brandon Ross and Ladarius Perkins, and was bailed out by a last minute TD run to salvage his fantasy day.

  1. Zac Stacy – Memphis Express
  2. Joel Bouagnon – Salt Lake Stallions
  3. Kenneth Farrow II – San Antonio Commanders
  4. Jhurell Pressley – Arizona Hotshots
  5. D’Ernest Johnson – Orlando Apollos
  6. Ja’Quan Gardner – San Diego Fleet

Tier 2 is simply the non-Atlanta lead backs. Assuming Branden Oliver is unavailable, Bouagnon inherits a wildly productive backfield and becomes a top RB option. Every back in this tier ranks top 7 among fantasy RBs this season, and projects to lead their team in snaps in Week 5. Don’t overthink it, start these guys.

  1. De’Veon Smith – Orlando Apollos
  2. Justin Stockton – Arizona Hotshots
  3. Akeem Hunt – Orlando Apollos
  4. Tarean Folston – Atlanta Legends
  5. Terrell Watson – San Diego Fleet

Tier 3 consists of Folston and secondary RBs with high upside. The Legends backfield was a severe committee, rendering all RBs unreliable for fantasy owners, but Folston appears to be one of the strongest backs on the roster, and managed to produce on limited snaps in Week 4.

  1. Terrell Newby – Salt Lake Stallions
  2. Denard Robinson – Atlanta Legends
  3. Ladarius Perkins – Birmingham Iron
  4. Brandon Ross – Birmingham Iron
  5. Brandon Radcliff – Atlanta Legends
  6. Trey Williams – San Antonio Commanders
  7. Sherman Badie – Memphis Express

Tier 4 is desperation city. None of these backs see reliable usage, so you’re forced to start them hoping for a longshot TD, some garbage time moments, or a random splash play to salvage their fantasy production. Keep an eye on Newby’s role if Oliver can’t play on Saturday.

Wide Receivers

  1. Charles Johnson – Orlando Apollos
  2. Rashad Ross – Arizona Hotshots
  3. Mekale McKay – San Antonio Commanders
  4. Jalin Marshall – Orlando Apollos

The first tier of WRs are all averaging double digit fantasy points, combining healthy volume with the talent to convert their targets into big fantasy weeks. McKay has underperformed as of late, but don’t mistake him for anything but an elite WR.

  1. Nelson Spruce – San Diego Fleet
  2. De’Mornay Pierson-El – Salt Lake Stallions
  3. Richard Mullaney – Arizona Hotshots
  4. Quinton Patton – Birmingham Iron
  5. Josh Huff – Arizona Hotshots
  6. Greg Ward Jr. – San Antonio Commanders
  7. Reece Horn – Memphis Express
  8. L’Damian Washington – Birmingham Iron
  9. Seantavius Jones – Atlanta Legends

This group is a significant drop off from the elite tier, but every WR here can be counted on to be involved in the passing game, and each one has TD and yardage upside. Ward Jr. is currently 2nd in the AAF in Red Zone targets, he is due for a day.

  1. Alton “Pig” Howard – Memphis Express
  2. Brian Brown – San Diego Fleet
  3. Dontez Ford – San Diego Fleet
  4. Rannell Hall – Orlando Apollos
  5. Malachi Jones – Atlanta Legends
  6. James Quick – Atlanta Legends
  7. Demarcus Ayers – San Antonio Commanders
  8. Kaelin Clay – Salt Lake Stallions
  9. Devin Lucien – Memphis Express

As with all bottom tiers, lean forward and throw your best dart. James Quick ranks 4th among all WRs in Week 3+4 targets, and with Murray at the helm he has underrated upside.

Tight Ends

  1. Gavin Escobar – San Diego Fleet
  2. Wes Saxton, Jr. – Birmingham Iron

Escobar is no longer alone in the premier TE tier. Saxton Jr. joined the Iron In Week 3 and has quickly emerged as a prime target for Luis Perez. Snaps, targets, routes, fantasy points, both of these TEs are standouts in every category. Cherish them if you managed to get them.

  1. Gerald Christian – Arizona Hotshots
  2. Keith Towbridge – Atlanta Legends
  3. Evan Rodriguez – San Antonio Commanders
  4. Marcus Baugh – San Diego Fleet
  5. Anthony Denham – Salt Lake Stallions
  6. Brandon Barnes – Memphis Express
  7. Scott Orndoff – Orlando Apollo
  8. Nick Truesdell – Salt Lake Stallions

I say it every week, and it hasn’t become less true: outside of the good TEs, it’s really rough for fantasy production. “TD-or-bust” doesn’t seem to properly gauge how poorly these players produce for fantasy owners. Statistically, you’re two times more likely to get a goose egg than a double digit outing. Don’t trouble yourself over this, just choose one and hope for the best.

Kickers

  1. Elliot Fry – Orlando Apollos
  2. Donny Hageman – San Diego Fleet
  3. Austin MacGinnis – Memphis Express
  4. Nick Folk – Arizona Hotshots
  5. Nick Rose – San Antonio Commanders
  6. Younghoe Koo – Atlanta Legends
  7. Nick Novak – Birmingham Iron
  8. Taylor Bertolet – Salt Lake Stallions

Defense / Special Teams

  1. Apollos D/ST
  2. Fleet D/ST
  3. Hotshots D/ST
  4. Iron D/ST
  5. Express D/ST
  6. Commanders D/ST
  7. Stallions D/ST
  8. Legends D/ST

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🚀 by Matt Swanson (DK: swan3788, Fanball: NoExtraPoints) and contributors

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