AAF DFS - Fanball Week 6 Lineup Review
My favorite fantasy column is Adam Levitan’s Cash Game Review. Adam is so open about his process, even when he has losing weeks, and I really admire that about him. Learning how he constructs lineups is invaluable.
Week 6 - Fanball Lineups
The AAF saved it’s best for last this week, as the final game of the week broke the slate. Birmingham and San Diego was slated to be a low scoring slug fest, but ended up being an offensive explosion.
An exciting game, but one that I had almost zero exposure too. Trent Richardson, L’Damian Washington, Luis Perez, Dontez Ford, and Terrell Watson all had monster games were among the leading scorers at their positions. While players like L’Damian Washington had flukey outcomes (outscoring his first five weeks combined), he was 6% owned in the main tournament and his lopsided score helped those brave enough to roster him leapfrog up the leaderboard.
My Main Slate Exposure
I built ten lineups and ended up with these exposures:
- Gilbert - 40%
- Murray - 20%
- Wolford - 20%
- Price - 10%
- Woodside - 10%
I put 60% of my exposure into quarterbacks in the Arizona/Orlando tilt, expecting a high scoring affair. There were several cheap punts that allowed me to get up to Gilbert.
I think Wolford is still underpriced ($600 less than Aaron Murray) and overlooked by the field. It’s not always pretty with Wolford but he is a quarterback capable of throwing multiple touchdowns in a game in an offense that is often playing from behind.
- D Johnson - 70%
- Newby - 50%
- Farrow - 40%
- Magee - 30%
- Folston - 20%
- Smith - 10%
Big bet on Orlando’s lead back D’Ernest Johnson. I expected Orlando to score in bunches and for Johnson to put in work playing with the lead. I loved Newby at his price for salary relief and expected him to continue his pass-catching role for Salt Lake.
I also liked Memphis backup Terrence Magee to see an elevated role with Sherman Badie on IR. Memphis only had two running backs active and Magee has flashed in his limited usage this year.
I didn’t love Farrow’s $6100 price, but he had a great chance at scoring at least once versus a Legends team that has been consistently bleeding fantasy points to running backs.
- Johnson - 70%
- McKay - 70%
- Ross - 60%
- Mullaney - 40%
- Patton - 20%
- S Jones - 20%
Every week I basically just load up on the top three receivers: Charles Johnson, Rashad Ross, and Mekale McKay. I was too gunshy with Mullaney – opting to mix in Newby and Magee – as I managed to convince myself that he was merely a good play, not a 100% lock. The mini-emergence of Bundy and Martino for Arizona worried me that Mullaney might be eased back into action after a multi-week injury.
I hoped to catch the Quinton Patton bounceback game with Keith Price set to start for the Iron. Patton’s opportunity in terms of targets and air yards is massive and Price took more downfield shots than Perez.
I stacked Aaron Murray with Seantavius Jones – who quietly is in the top 5 in targets and looked to be the clear #1 option for Atlanta.
It was an anti-climatic week. Going into the Sunday night game, I was already guaranteed a down week – but having basically zero exposure to the Iron and Fleet (outside of Quinton Patton) whipped out my remaining winnings. Complete airball.
In a league where every week is a four game slate, I picked the wrong teams to stack and, since I went it hard on that limited player pool, the results were going to be lopsided. Last week I hit and won big, this week I missed and lost every contest.
I wish I had the conviction to play Mullaney in all my lineups where I went Magee. I was okay with Newby – it was a strange result that Salt Lake threw the ball almost 40 times and no running backs caught passes. Magee was a bad play in retrospect – he basically needed a touchdown to hit. I told myself a story that he could catch a few balls out of the backfield and get 10-12 touches, when in reality, he has never gotten more than 2 targets per game. It didn’t help that Mettenberger was hurt on the first play of the game.
Looking back, I didn’t realize I had so much D’Ernest Johnson. I liked him as a play, but I think his range of outcomes was very similar to Pressley, Farrow, and Richardson. Especially with Akeem Hunt still getting snaps and De’Veon Smith playing the short-yardage role, I should have tempered my expectations a bit.
Air ball. My “best” lineup finished in 191st (out of 400) in the Big GPP.
Entered $230, Won $0
Back to reality after a nice two week stretch!
- Week 01: +$118.00
- Week 02: +$253.67
- Week 03: -$534.75
- Week 04: +$367.50
- Week 05: +$663.75
- Week 06: -$230.00
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